Jul 22, 2026
The stock market is near a record on second-quarter earnings while oil hits $94, mortgage rates hit a wartime high, and the war kills its 17th American. One of these is measuring the wrong quarter.
Jul 8, 2026
Last week's de-escalation reverses: the U.S. strikes Iran, declares the ceasefire over, and pulls the oil waiver, and the rate bet snaps back with it.
Jul 2, 2026
A record quarter closes and the market rotates its leadership, then the first jobs read of the new quarter starts unwinding the rate bet underneath it.
Jun 24, 2026
The Hand-OffFor 117 days the war was the one variable every board agenda bent around. This week it handed off, and the market showed us what it was covering.
Jun 18, 2026
Give-BackThe war's exit returned the oil this week. It did not return the price level, the rate path, or the sanctions map.