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Pass-Through

Jun 10, 2026

The war's cost stopped being a forecast this morning: inflation crossed 4 percent as the ceasefire came apart on the same tape.

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Not Yet

Jun 4, 2026

Markets priced the war's end; this week Tehran and Washington both said not yet, and the rally broke.

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Priced for Peace

May 28, 2026

Markets closed at record highs on a deal the war had not signed; by morning the strikes had resumed.

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Two Ceilings

May 20, 2026

When the bond market and the war compress at once, capital structure decisions stop waiting for the war to end.

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The Pivot to Beijing

May 13, 2026

What boards should do when the negotiating channel breaks and the operating environment splits into three binary scenarios.

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The Bill Comes Due

May 6, 2026

What boards should read from a week in which last week's confident commitments each generated a cost signal, and from a Wednesday in which the cost itself is being repriced in real time.

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The Pause Is Gone

Apr 29, 2026

What 2026 asks of boards when "between events" stops existing.

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The Compression

Apr 22, 2026

The convergence arrived. It did not converge. It compressed.

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The Ceasefire That Became a Siege

Apr 15, 2026

The ceasefire has not collapsed. It has transformed.

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The Pause Is Not the Peace

Apr 8, 2026

What the Two-Week Ceasefire Means and What It Does Not

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