Jul 22, 2026
The stock market is near a record on second-quarter earnings while oil hits $94, mortgage rates hit a wartime high, and the war kills its 17th American. One of these is measuring the wrong quarter.
Jul 8, 2026
Last week's de-escalation reverses: the U.S. strikes Iran, declares the ceasefire over, and pulls the oil waiver, and the rate bet snaps back with it.
Jul 2, 2026
A record quarter closes and the market rotates its leadership, then the first jobs read of the new quarter starts unwinding the rate bet underneath it.
Jun 24, 2026
The Hand-OffFor 117 days the war was the one variable every board agenda bent around. This week it handed off, and the market showed us what it was covering.
Jun 18, 2026
Give-BackThe war's exit returned the oil this week. It did not return the price level, the rate path, or the sanctions map.
Jun 10, 2026
The war's cost stopped being a forecast this morning: inflation crossed 4 percent as the ceasefire came apart on the same tape.
Jun 4, 2026
Markets priced the war's end; this week Tehran and Washington both said not yet, and the rally broke.
May 28, 2026
Markets closed at record highs on a deal the war had not signed; by morning the strikes had resumed.
May 20, 2026
When the bond market and the war compress at once, capital structure decisions stop waiting for the war to end.
May 13, 2026
What boards should do when the negotiating channel breaks and the operating environment splits into three binary scenarios.